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September 12th, 2019 - N. Illinois Chase

9/30/2019

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Heading in to this day, there was some potential for severe t'storms and a possible local chase. The main questions were how much destabilization would occur, and where the warm front would set up.

A supercell ended up developing out of elevated convection moving into North-Central Illinois during the early afternoon. I ended heading out and intercepting the storm near Ashton IL, a bit after it had gone tornado warned. Upon arriving, the storm was interacting with the warm front, and made a serious attempt at wrapping up and producing. Unfortunately, due to the warm front being in a NW/SE orientation, there was a small window of opportunity to produce..in which it did not succeed. I followed along east with the storm for a bit longer just in case it tried to do something interesting, before dropping off of it and ending the short chase. On the way home, another storm developed and went severe/tor warned south of the original storm. It was well north of the warm front, even so tried its best to do something...but ultimately failed as well.
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If the warm front would have been oriented more W-E instead of NW/SE, along with not retreating SW, activity likely would have been able to latch on to the boundary, and would have had a better chance at producing and would have had longevity. 

Some pictures from the chase can be seen below...More pictures can be seen in the 2019 photography section.
​Statistics:
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: None
Wind: None
SPC Reports:
Picture
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May 27th, 2019 - N. Illinois Chase

5/30/2019

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This day looked like a potential severe t'storm/tornado outbreak-like day across the area, having similarity to other high end area events, such as 6/5/2010. There were very few concerns heading into this day overall.

I ended up heading out just after noon, with a target of near or just south of I-80...Between I-74 and I-39. Ended up passing a first initial supercell that pushed across the south Chicago metro, just as it was starting to get going in the far SW suburbs. However, I decided to not chase it, given it was heading into the metro and could put me out of position for the main activity expected further west. On the drive down I was also watching the cluster of tornadic supercells pushing from SE. Iowa into W. Illinois, but was not fond of how messy and clustered they were. Stuck with the original plan and I made it to Princeton, IL, prior to 2PM. By this time a few supercells had developed near MLI, and were starting to slowly mature and push east. I grabbed some food really quick in Princeton, before heading after the better looking storm just as it went tor warned off the the northwest. I reached the storm as it was approaching Deere Grove, IL. At this time, the storm was outflow dominant and fighting other storm development nearby. Continuing to stair-step east with this storm, to north and northeast of Walnut, IL, the storm continued to be fairly outflow dominant, as it ingested another storm or two...However, there was one point that it did seem to make an effort to organize for a sort time, with even a more concentrated area of rotation/lowering. I continued east with this storm through the Sublette, IL area, eventually reaching Route 251. Through this point the storm continued to be outflow dominant, and there was also widespread additional t'storm develop, which would hamper further potential with this storm. At this point I called it a chase and headed home.

It appears that a remnant MCS over Missouri, and possibly the early developed cluster of supercells that pushed across SE. Iowa/W. Illinois, are possibly two factors in why the potential across E. Iowa and N/C. Illinois was not realized. However, a significant severe t'storm and tornado event did unfold further east, across Indiana and Ohio.


Some pictures from the chase can be seen below...More pictures can be seen in the 2019 photography section.
Statistics:
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: None
Wind: None
SPC Reports:
Picture
0 Comments

May 16th, 2019 - N. Illinois Chase

5/30/2019

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Heading into this day, it appeared a decent severe threat and potential chase day was likely. The significance of the potential would revolve around an early day MCS, associated trailing OFB and potential capping.

I ended up heading out to make a play on an OFB area turned triple point across NW/NC. IL, with a cold front sliding southeast. The environment in this area was nice...With high CAPE, pooling of moisture with ~70F DP's and good shear. A stronger surface wind flow was lacking, however. I left around mid afternoon and made it out to Rochelle, IL by late afternoon. I sat in Rochelle for a while with CU bubbling along the OFB/triple point just to the west. A storm quickly went up and tried to beat the cap, going severe and up to around ~55k tops within 15 minutes or so. I quickly headed WSW to make a play on this storm and reached it just west of Amboy, IL, but it quickly died shortly after. Ended up calling it a chase at that point, with activity further west near the IL/IA border having little to no tornado threat, and also struggling against the cap.
Statistics:
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: None
Wind: None
​SPC Reports:
Picture
0 Comments

May 8th, 2019 - N. Illinois Chase

5/30/2019

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Heading into this day, there looked as though there would be some sort of severe weather potential, but the quality and whether or not it would be chase worthy was in question. One of the bigger concerns was lingering rain and t'storms that were to weaken, along with cloud debris from this activity.

It ended up looking good enough for me to head west to Dixon, IL late in the morning. The warm front/triple point area looked like the main play across NW/NC. Illinois. The environment in place was featuring decent instability, good moisture and great shear, plus there was much more clearing then expected as well. I got out to Dixon during the early afternoon and was sitting there for a bit, when clouds and rain redeveloped over a large area and streamed back northeast across W. IL and further north, killing any potential threat. After sitting in Dixon for several hours watching all of this evolve, I decided to call it a chase and head home. Upon arriving home a line of t'storm did developed across Central Illinois, within the rain and cloud debris that had moved it...but no severe t'storms occurred.
Statistics:
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: None
Wind: None
SPC Reports:
Picture
0 Comments

May 2nd, 2018 - W-C. Oklahoma Chase

6/19/2018

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This is the second of two chase days in this period. There appeared to be two areas of potential, one across C. Kansas and the other across W-C. Oklahoma and N. Texas. Instability, moisture and shear looked favorable leading up to this day. However, capping and quantity of storms looking to be the biggest concerns once again.

I once again was chasing with Adam Lucio, Chelsea Burnett and Jonathan Williamson. We started the day in McPherson, KS. Upon waking up and looking over data, a main target within W-C. Oklahoma looked like the best bet. Further north across Kansas appeared as though would suffer from having too many storms and more linear activity, with better discrete activity likely being across Oklahoma. We set out in a caravan of two vehicles with an initial target of Seiling, OK. 

We made it down into NW. Oklahoma as initiation was already occurring and maturing across SW. Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. This activity would eventually go on to be tornado and damaging wind producing storms in Kansas. As we continued south, additional development occurred in the E. Texas Panhandle, which slowly matured. We ended up getting on our first severe warned storm near Elk City, OK. We followed this storm ENE for a while, but it was high based and seemed to struggle, eventually weakening. By this time further development occurred to our south and became tornado warned supercells. We decided at this point to drop off of our original storm, and head down to this new activity.

We made it to our new target storm as it approached Mountain View, OK. We ended up following this storm to the ENE, as it had lowerings and gustnadoes at times. However, it was struggling to maintain and produce, and was closing in on the OKC metro area as well. We decided to drop south off of this storm onto another tornado warned supercell that had recently developed to it's south. Upon arriving to this storm it was struggling as well, as all of the storms in the area started to interact and congeal into a large cluster. We ended up sitting on Highway 81 well north of Chickasha, OK for a while, watching this storm struggle, though it did have a lowering for a time. By this time a damaging wind producing bowing line segment was racing NE towards us, and showing a bit of rotation on the north side. We decided to call it a chase and head to Chickasha. Arriving in Chickasha a report came in of a tornado close to where we had been sitting a short time before on Highway 81, associated with that aforementioned rotation with the bowing line segment.


Some pictures from the chase can be seen below...More pictures can be seen in the 2018 photography section.
Statistics:
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: 0.25" (Pea Size)
Wind: ~60MPH
SPC Reports:
Picture
0 Comments

May 1st, 2018 - C. Kansas Chase

6/19/2018

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This day is one of two to three days that had shown potential in this period. There appeared to be one main area of potential across S. Nebraska, C. Kansas and N. Oklahoma. Instability, moisture and shear looked favorable leading up to this day. However, capping and quantity of storms looking to be the biggest concerns.

For this period I teamed up with Adam Lucio, Chelsea Burnett and Jonathan Williamson. We started the day in Norman, OK. Upon waking up and looking over data, a main target within C. Kansas looked like the best bet. Further north appeared as though would suffer from having too many storms, with better discrete activity likely being near and south of I-70. We set out with an initial target of Great Bend, KS. After dropping an extra vehicle off in McPherson, KS, we made it to Great Bend during the early afternoon. 

Sitting in Great Bend for a while, we watched as numerous storms initiated to our west and pushed off to our north and northeast. We never were really tempted to go after any of this activity, with the expected better discrete activity likely to develop to our southwest. Eventually a storm that developed to our southwest matured as it moved just to our west and became tornado warned. We decided to head to this storm, where we eventually caught up with it near Timkin, KS. We followed this storm for a while to the ENE and encountered golf ball size hail, but it really did not look too interesting and seemed to be struggling. By this time new development had occurred well to our southwest and had matured. We decided to drop off of our original storm and head south to what was now a discrete tornado warned supercell northeast of Greensburg, KS. (Our original storm eventually went on to re-strengthen and produce a few tornadoes, including an EF-3 near Tescott, KS)

We caught up with our new storm near St. John, KS, where we sat and watched it for quite a while. Upon initially arriving it was a nice supercell, though it had a high base. As time went on the storm started to struggled, and transitioned into a nice LP supercell. We sat and watched as it continued as an LP supercell as it further moved a way from us, eventually weakening. By this time sunset was approaching and no other storms were even close to us. We decided to call it a chase, and head back to McPherson, KS for the night.


Some pictures from the chase can be seen below...More pictures can be seen in the 2018 photography section.
Statistics:
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: 1.75" (Golf Ball Size)
Wind: 40MPH+
SPC Reports:
Picture
0 Comments

Februay 28th, 2017 - N-C. Illinois Chase

3/7/2017

0 Comments

 
This day had shown potential of being an early season severe weather event for a big portion of the Central U.S. for several days preceding it, and it ended up coming to fruition. There appeared to be two areas of higher potential, with the northern one being across the heart of Illinois, and the other being in the vicinity of the Mississippi River/Ohio River area. The northern play was my only viable option to chase, and was nice to see being closer to home for the first event of the season, an early one at that. 

My target area for the day was in W. and C. Illinois, near and just south of I-80. Storms were initially expected to develop late in the afternoon, with early sunset being a potential issue as well as fast storm motions. As the day of progressed, it became clear storm initiation would occur earlier, during the mid-afternoon. Storms indeed ended up developing earlier, with initiation in E. Iowa during the mid-afternoon hours. These storms quickly became discrete as they pushed ENE into NW and W. Illinois.

We left DeKalb a bit later than I wanted, as storms were already moving into the Moline to Galesburg to Macomb areas. We were heading south on I-39 towards La Salle, when one of the lead supercells became tornado warned down that way. We approached from the north driving into portion of the core, experiencing 40mph+ winds and penny sized hail. Unfortunately due to traffic, we fell behind the storm a bit, and got onto I-80 as the storm was moving towards Ottawa. At this point I had to make the decision to continue trying to catch-up to this storm we had been following, or down south the the far southern severe storm, that had nothing around it to mitigate its potential as it matured. The decision was made to continue with our current storm, and we quickly became stuck in traffic once again just NW of Ottawa as a tornado was in progress just a few miles to our SE. We ended up getting out of traffic, making a quick jump trough the non-damaged north side of Ottawa where we got on Route 6. Still behind the storm and trying to catch up, the winding Route 6 along the Illinois River made it difficult to catch up, but we finally did as we approached Morris. At this time we caught a glimpse of the lowering, and potentially the end of the Marseilles tornado. Getting into Morris we decided to drop off this storm, as rotation was weakening and it was heading into he more populated metro area shortly. 

From there, we decided to head SW to the other tornadic supercell in the area. We ended up intercepting the storm near Ransom, IL. By this time this storm was was showing signs of weakening as well, and we let it pass us by. Well after dark at this point with no other decent looking storms around, we called it a chase and headed home.
Statistics:
Tornadoes: 
Hail: 0.75" (Penny Size)
Wind: 40MPH+
SPC Reports:
Picture
0 Comments

June 22nd, 2016 - N. Illinois Chase

8/19/2016

0 Comments

 
Potential for this day showed up a few days out, with some similarity to the previous years event (6/22/15), which was a localized significant event. The potential varied on model guidance, with a few potential issues showing up as well. These issues included early day storms and debris, warm front position, and capping. All of which were sorted out in the end to create a localized significant event.

As usual, there was hesitation and procrastination to leave on a local day. Storms developed in E. Iowa and NW. Illinois during the mid-afternoon hours. We decided to leave and head west to intercept the storms as they pushed east-southeast and continued to strengthen. We made it to the vicinity of what was now a string of supercells, with tornadoes already reported.

Approaching from the northeast, our best option was to make a play on the furthest north supercell, which was approaching Earlville and Leland. We gained a good visual of the storm on Route 23 south of Leland, where we witnessed the end of the Earlville tornado. As the storm approached we took a quick jump south, then east on Route 52, finally back northeast on Route 71 to Newark. We made a quick stop in Newark, as a new circulation was a few miles to our west-northwest, northwest of Sheridan. This circulation passed just to our south in a weakening phase as we sat in Newark, witnessing a wind shift.

As the storm passed we decided to call it a chase given some flooding was occurring, darkness had set in, and storms were moving in a not so favorable southeast direction.
Statistics:
Tornadoes: 1
Hail: 0.88" (Nickel)
Wind: 50MPH+
SPC Reports:
Picture
0 Comments

March 30th, 2016 - C. Iowa Chase

4/4/2016

0 Comments

 
As usual, this day had shown potential several days out. The potential varied on model guidance, with a few potential issues showing up as well. Timing, ongoing storm activity through the day and associated cloud debris, veer-back wind profiles, and surface wind direction were all potential issues ahead of time. Timing ended up working out in the end, but the other two issues were still a problem, along with moisture return further north across N. MO.NE. KS/IA as well.

We left early Wednesday morning, with an initial target in the vicinity of Emporia,KS along the dry line. Making it to Des Moines before noon, the decision was made to play the triple point in E. NE/IA instead. This decision was based on ongoing activity in OK/KS/MO/AR potential creating problems with the initial KS target. We sat in Des Moines for a few hours watching things, before finally heading southwest to Atlantic, IA.

While sitting in Atlantic for a while, there were a few attempts at storm initiation to our west along the dry line and to the northwest along the surging cold front racing southeast. Eventually a storm did develop along the intersection of the cold front and dry line to the west of us. At the same time, a storm developed well to our southeast in S. Iowa. Both storms slowly matured, with the storm to our southeast becoming interesting a bit more rapidly. After pondering which storm to go after for a bit, we decided to head northwest towards the storm on the triple point, even though there was a good chance it would be undercut by the surging cold front. While heading towards this storm, the storm that had developed in S. IA quickly began to weaken, and eventually diminished.

Upon making it to our storm, it was already being undercut by the surging cold front. Unfortunately, this was the only interesting storm in the area, so we continued to follow it. There storm stayed just on the north side of the boundary, which kept it somewhat interesting, as it pushed ENE. We tracked the storm east to Des Moines, before finally dropping off of it and calling it a chase.

Some pictures from the chase can be seen below.
Statistics:
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: 0.00"
Wind: 40MPH+
SPC Reports:
Picture
0 Comments

March 15th, 2016 - C. Illinois Chase

3/18/2016

0 Comments

 
This day showed potential to be the first chase day of the season several days out. Leading up to the event the main question in the end was available moisture, and how high dew points would get, which would dictate the tornado potential. 

We left home late morning, with a target area in far Western Illinois, likely in the Keokuk to Hannibal corridor. We made it out to Jerseyville, IL by mid afternoon, we we decided to sit and wait for initiation to occur further south, and initiation had already occurred further north. Some time passed, and there were finally some attempts at initiation just to our southwest. Unfortunately the first few attempts failed, before things finally took off and two supercells formed.

We had a nice view of the northern supercell, which slowly matured. I featured a nice structure, which included a nicely sculpted meso, and produced some marble (0.50") hail at our location. This storm showed some broad and weak rotation, but never could do more than that. During this time, the supercell to the south was also maturing, and was looking a bit better. We ended up heading east on I-72 to make a play on the southern storm. While heading east the southern supercell gained some weak rotation and became tornado warned, while the northern supercell started to fade as the southern one became more dominant. 

Continuing east on I-72 to New Berlin, and then south on a side road, we got view of the storm continued to have wall clouds and funnel clouds from time to time. While heading ENE on Old Route 54 to the southwest of Curran, rotation quickly tightened up, and a tornado touched down. The tornado was never fully condensed, with the visible funnel only halfway to the ground, but a bowl of dirt/debris was visible on the ground under the funnel. The tornado persisted several minutes as it pushed northeast towards Springfield, but luckily it lifted before moving into town and more populated areas. This tornado was rated an EF-1 by NWS ILX.

We continued to followed this supercell storm northeast for several more hours, as it continued to have a wall cloud from time to time. We eventually dropped off of it near Kankakee, as it was overtaken by a line of severe storms.

Some pictures from the chase can be seen below...More pictures can be seen in the 2016 photography section.
Statistics:
Tornadoes: 1
Hail: 0.50" (Marble Size)
Wind: 40MPH+
SPC Reports:
Picture
0 Comments
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